As last week’s dance-off between Bethany & Nancy and Cach & Maddie was highly unusual for three reasons, I thought this would be the perfect time to highlight some dance-off specific statistics.

The dance-off was first introduced to Strictly as a way of determining which partnership would be eliminated at the start of series five (in 2007); and apart from a two-year absence covering series eight & nine, it has remained an integral part of the show ever since.

Don’t lose your ‘head’

In total, 186 dance-offs have taken place, and the most recent was certainly ‘unlucky’ for Bethany, as it was the thirteenth that was determined by the head judge’s casting vote.

Judges’ verdict Number of instances Percentage
4-0 (unanimous) 119 64.0%
3-0 (unanimous) 4 2.2%
5-0 (unanimous) 2 1.1%
3-1 (split decision) 44 23.7%
2-1 (split decision) 4 2.2%
2-2 (casting vote) 13 7.0%

The thirteen dance-offs which each ended up as a tie are as follows. How many of them do you remember, and do you agree with the outcome?

Series & week Dance-off ‘winners’ Dance-off ‘losers’ Judge with the casting vote Additional weeks before the ‘winners’ would be eliminated
s6, wk1 Don Warrington & Lilia Phil Daniels & Flavia Len 4
s7, wk1 Rav Wilding & Aliona Martina Hingis & Matthew Len 2*
s7, wk4 Craig Kelly & Flavia Lynda Bellingham & Darren Len 4
s7, wk9 Ricky Groves & Erin Phil Tufnell & Katya V Len 1
s12, wk5 Simon Webbe & Kristina Thom Evans & Iveta Len 8**
s12, wk11 (QF) Simon Webbe & Kristina Pixie Lott & Trent Len 2**
s12, wk12 (SF) Mark Wright & Karen Jake Wood & Janette Len 1**
s15, wk7 Mollie King & AJ Aston Merrygold & Janette Shirley 5
s17, wk6 Mike Bushell & Katya J Catherine Tyldesley & Johannes Shirley 2
s17, wk11 (QF) Chris Ramsey & Karen Alex Scott & Neil Shirley 1
s22, wk8 Wynne Evans & Katya J Shayne Ward & Nancy Shirley 1
s23, wk4 Balvinder Sopal & Julian Chris Robshaw & Nadiya Craig 8
s24, wk7 Cach Mercer & Maddie Bethany Antonia & Nancy Shirley TBC

* In series 7, contestants were split into two groups, and those who danced in week 1 did not dance again until week 3; so technically Rav lasted two more weeks, although he only performed one more routine

** Both Simon & Mark went on to reach the s12 final

  • Eleven of the 13 tied dance-offs were won by male celebrities
  • The two female ‘winners’ (Mollie & Balvinder) both went on to reach the semi-final; whereas male ‘winners’ have tended to be eliminated soon after their narrow escape
  • Simon & Kristina are arguably the ‘luckiest’ Strictly partnership, being the only duo that has survived two tied votes
  • Nancy joins Janette as being the ‘unluckiest’ professional dancers, with both eliminated after a tied vote on two occasions

Deficit deniers

Cach & Maddie entered the dance-off with a four-point deficit to overcome when compared to Bethany & Nancy’s score. This is the second largest point deficit to have ever won a dance-off.

Number of points between the two dance-off routines Instances Instances that the ‘higher’ scoring routine won Instances that the ‘lower’ scoring routine won Percentage of dance-offs won by the ‘lower’ scoring routine
1 point 25 18 7 28.0%
2 points 24 15 9 37.5%
3 points 22 20 2 9.1%
4 points 22 21 1 4.5%
5 points 25 25 0 0.0%
6 or more points 56 55 1 1.8%
Total 174 154 20 11.5%

* The eleven dance-offs that featured two routines that received the same score, and this year’s ‘three-way’ dance-off have all been excluded from this table

This analysis shows how difficult it is to overcome anything higher than a two-point deficit in a dance-off, with it only being achieved on four occasions out of 125 opportunities (3.2%). The four partnerships who were able to do this are…

Series & week Dance-off winners (and score) Dance-off losers (and score) Point deficit Judges’ vote
s10, wk5 Richard Arnold & Erin (17) Colin Salmon & Kristina (27) 10 points 4-0
s17, wk2 David James & Nadiya (10) James Cracknell & Luba (13) 3 points 4-0
s19, wk8 Tilly Ramsay & Nikita (29) Sara Davies & Aljaz (32) 3 points 4-0
s24, wk7 Cach Mercer & Maddie (26) Bethany Antonia & Nancy (30) 4 points 2-2

Victims of a ballroom blitz

Finally, last week’s dance-off featured two ‘ballroom’ routines, which since its return to the show in series 10, is the rarest possible outcome.

Styles in the dance-off Instances Percentage
Latin vs Speciality 43 28.9%
Ballroom vs Latin 41 27.5%
Ballroom vs Speciality 25 16.8%
Latin vs Latin 19 12.8%
Speciality vs Speciality 14 9.4%
Ballroom vs Ballroom 7 4.7%

The seven instances of two ballroom routines facing off in the dance-off are…

Series & week Dance-off winners Style performed Dance-off losers Style performed
s10, wk5 Richard Arnold & Erin Foxtrot Colin Salmon & Kristina Foxtrot
s15, wk7 Mollie King & AJ Foxtrot Aston Merrygold & Janette Viennese Waltz
s15, wk8 Jonnie Peacock & Oti Foxtrot Ruth Langsford & Anton Foxtrot
s15, wk12 (SF) Gemma Atkinson & Aljaz Tango Mollie King & AJ Waltz
s21, wk12 (SF) Bobby Brazier & Dianne Quickstep Annabel Croft & Johannes Viennese Waltz
s22, wk10 Montell Douglas & Johannes Quickstep Jamie Borthwick & Michelle Foxtrot
s24, wk7 Cach Mercer & Maddie Waltz Bethany Antonia & Nancy Foxtrot

So, given the low probability of each of these three events happening

  • 7.0% - a tied judges’ vote
  • 3.2% - overcoming a dance-off deficit of 3 or more points
  • 4.7% - two ballroom routines facing each other in the dance-off

… the chances of all three taking place in the same week are an astronomical one in 9,500; which is why I think it’s fair to say that we’ve just seen a ‘once in a lifetime’ dance-off.