2024 Week Three: Deep Dive
Movie Week is always a highlight every year and this year was no exception. We had some amazing dances, and the celebs certainly felt the rigours of the competition begin to hit. Here's hoping it gets a little easier as they start to get used to the routines.
Firstly, all of us at the Strictly Scoreboard were really pleased to see Dave Arch in the opening VT - it's great to see more of Dave and long may it continue! And what a way for Shirley to enter the show, coming down from the top of the studio as her character for the show, Mary Poppins, would have done. Fab-u-lous. Did anyone miss the run of Mary Poppins references Shirley was making in her notes to the dancers? We caught a few of them.
There was a massive change to previous years as the 2024 movie week produced not a single 10 paddle - even Punam & Gorka's amazing Bollywood Couple's Choice couldn't tempt any of the judges to reach for their top score paddle. In fact, all the judges scores this week are the lowest for week three that we've seen in quite a few years - none of them got above a 7 average for the night. The highest was Anton, averaging 6.94 over the course of Saturday. Craig was closeby at 6.21.
The Viennese Waltz was danced twice this week, and both dances scored 33 points.
More Viennese Waltz stats
Pete and Jowita scored an average of 6.5 from the judges - 0.7 points more than the viewers!
In a break from tradition we did not see the 10 paddle come out.
Listening back to all the judges comments we noticed a phrase that we think we heard more this week than any other week EVER on Strictly, "I agree with Craig", which was spoken by every judge on the panel. It was, however, sad to not see Nick and Luba this week as they will have danced the Charleston, a week three staple.
Leaving the competition this week were Toyah and Neil, who unfortunately have the title of giving us the lowest week three score in a while, with just 15 points. This was a dip from their score last week of 18. Which brings us onto the topic of "Expected Points". It's quite easy to see the couples who are improving, as when we look at their score profile we see a solid gain each week. Jamie & Michelle are a great example of this. Their past three weeks scores have been 23, 27 and 30 - an expected upwards trend. Compare that to JB Gill and Amy, who have a very bottom heavy curve of 31, 27 and 32, and then to Montell & Johannes who have a top- heavy curve of 26, 30, and 28. Looking through the graphs for all the 2024 pairings and it's easy to spot who's maybe finding it difficult.
This week we're also looking at the difference in Judges scoring vs Viewers scoring, and on the whole they're all pretty close. There are only three couples which have a difference greater than 0.5 on the average score - Pete & Jowita scored 26 from the judges, an average of 6.5, but the viewers were much lower, scoring an average of 5.8 across everyone who sent in their scores. At the other end of this exceptionally interesting table is Sarah & Vito who scored an average of 8.25 from the judges, taking 33 points in total, and the viewers average, 8.27, just 0.02 points away. It's safe to say the viewers and judges were spot on!
If the viewers scores dictated the final table for the week we'd have a switch at the top with Sarah & Vito taking first place, followed by Tasha & Aljaz. At the bottom though there's no change, with Toyah & Neil taking last place, followed by Paul & Karen. It's clear that for almost all the dancers the viewers and Judges tend to agree!
Judges vs Viewers
How did the viewers score the dances, versus the judges. Who came out on top for everyone watching and who did the judges over or under mark. The "Difference" column shows how close were the viewers to the judges scores.
| Pairing | Dance | Total Score | Judges Avg | Viewers Avg | Difference |
|---|
(The viewers scores are collected from the near 100,000 unique viewers who visit the site, and who tell us what they would score the dance, whilst it's being danced, live on Saturday night. The opportunity to add scores closes as soon as the judges give their scores. We then average those scores as a simple calculation of total scores divided by the number of viewers scoring the dance.)
Week Three Averages
| Judge |  |
|
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 6.50 | 7.43 | 7.57 | 7.43 |
| 2022 | 5.79 | 7.57 | 7.00 | 7.36 |
| 2023 | 6.64 | 7.29 | 7.00 | 7.29 |
| 2024 | 6.21 | 6.79 | 6.71 | 6.93 |
| Year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average score | 28.93 | 27.71 | 28.21 | 26.64 |
Our Estimates
Every week we estimate the judges scores in our look ahead, here's how we did. (The difference is how far away our estimate way from their actual average)
| Judge | |
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our estimate | 6.50 | 7.30 | 7.20 | 7.40 |
| Actuals | 6.21 | 6.79 | 6.71 | 6.93 |
| Difference | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 0.47 |
