2024 Week Four: Deep Dive
The stand-out statistic from Week Four is the difference between the Judges scores and the Viewers scores. Looking at Week Three as a comparison, where the biggest difference was the viewers scoring Pete & Jowita 0.7 points below that of the Judges, and the smallest being a 0.02 difference for Sarah & Vito; Week Four becomes a massive gulf between the two scores. Viewers felt that Punam & Gorka were hugely under-marked, a "mind-the-gap" chasm of 1.36 points. Had the viewers scores driven the leaderboard then Punam & Gorka would be three places higher.
The top five pairings, Tasha & Aljaz on 39, Jamie & Michelle on 34, Wynne & Katya also on 34, Montell & Johannes on 33, and Shayne & Nancy on 30 - were all over-marked according to the viewers, with Jamie & Michelle in particular receiving 1.19 points more from the Judges than the viewers felt they should receive. Almost in synergy, the bottom the leaderboard is the opposite - with the bottom five all under-marked according to viewers scores taken from the Saturday night.
Week Five will be super interesting as we'll start to be able to plot some trends on those pairings that are in the eyes of the viewers, consistently over or under marked by the Judges.
Anton scored an average of 7.62 across the evening - exactly the same as in 2023!
Viewers scored Punam & Gorka a huge 1.4 points higher than the judges!
Tasha & Aljaz came out top for the Judges and the Viewers scores.
The pairings picked for the dance-off, and those called 'Safe' by Tess, has always struck me as far too orchestrated. The phrase "in no particular order" carries absolutely no weight and no longer deceives us into thinking it's not been planned for maximum suspense. It was nice, however, to see Paul & Karen called safe first, as Tess built up towards the first to be in the dance-off. After that the Top 5 pairings were called, albeit in "no particular order", still it was the top five, those with very little chance of being in the dance-off. What we can tell from Shayne & Nancy being put into the dance-off is that either everyone who voted for them before considered them safe enough, and therefore voted for someone else, or there isn't that much public support for Shayne, especially when you consider that five other pairings must have garnered a higher phone vote on Saturday night.
This was Week Four, and in terms of rehearsal time and progression, Nick was really still in Week Two, having missed so much rehearsal time with the damaged arm, and then his knee. The first few weeks really set in stone the musicality and basic steps for the dances. Without that the Charleston felt like a Week Two dance. It was a shame to see them go, but had they not been eliminated I feel the public would have been calling for heads to roll.
The average scores across all pairings this week, for 2023, was 29.08 - and for 2024 the average is exactly the same. We did have three 10 paddles, for Sarah & Vito and their amazing Foxtrot, and that will have raised the average a little. Looking at the Judges and it's a similar story - but with some swaps. Craig's average for Week Four dipped by a very slight 0.23, Motsi raised her average by 0.16, Shirley raised by 0.07 - and Anton, was exactly the same as 2023 - 7.62. This itself is an insightful stat, especially when you consider that Motsi was the only Judge to award a 10 paddle in 2023. This shows, if we discount the 10 paddles from this year, that Motsi scored most dances this year higher than last year - whereas the scores from Craig and Anton show a dip.
Other quick-fire, stand-out moments this year, for Week 4, was the amazing stat that it was Amy's first ever Rumba on the live show with a celeb; the 2024 series seems so much more laid-back than previous years, which is a good thing for the entertainment value; Craig is much harsher on Chris and Dianne than the other judges, which backs up what Craig mentioned this week on the live show, that he's judging Chris purely for his dancing; and finally there were a whopping nine points between the two dance-off pairings - this is the largest gap for a dance-off combination since Fleur & Vito and Ellie & Johannes in Week 10 of 2022, where the gap then was 10 points.
Judges vs Viewers
How did the viewers score the dances, versus the judges. Who came out on top for everyone watching and who did the judges over or under mark. The "Difference" column shows how close were the viewers to the judges scores.
| Pairing | Dance | Total Score | Judges Avg | Viewers Avg | Difference |
|---|
(The viewers scores are collected from the near 100,000 unique viewers who visit the site, and who tell us what they would score the dance, whilst it's being danced, live on Saturday night. The opportunity to add scores closes as soon as the judges give their scores. We then average those scores as a simple calculation of total scores divided by the number of viewers scoring the dance.)
Week Four Averages
| Judge |  |
 |
 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 5.67 | 6.58 | 6.75 | 7.00 |
| 2022 | 6.77 | 8.15 | 7.69 | 8.31 |
| 2023 | 6.77 | 7.38 | 7.31 | 7.62 |
| 2024 | 6.54 | 7.54 | 7.38 | 7.62 |
| Year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average score | 26.00 | 30.92 | 29.08 | 29.08 |
Our Estimates
Every week we estimate the judges scores in our look ahead, here's how we did. (The difference is how far away our estimate way from their actual average)
| Judge | |
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our estimate | 6.60 | 7.20 | 7.10 | 7.30 |
| Actuals | 6.54 | 7.54 | 7.38 | 7.62 |
| Difference | 0.06 | 0.34 | 0.28 | 0.32 |
