Who is most at risk from a ‘Week Two Wobble’?
Congratulations to our series 24 contestants who have all appeared to get through week one relatively unscathed. Moving forward, they will now have to readjust to the ‘new normal’ of having to learn and perfect a routine in four days, rather than the two weeks they had previously. Historically, 57% of Strictly partnerships do see an uptick in their week two score, however there are many examples of contestants turning from heroes to zeroes between the two performances.
In this week’s article I have analysed the scores of the 315 contestants who performed in at least two Strictly routines and split them into four categories, to see if this can give us any hints as to who is most likely to suffer a ‘wobble’ this week.
‘Top of the class’ - contestants that scored 30+ points in week one
| Class size (s1-s23) | 46 (2.0 per series) | |
|---|---|---|
| New additions | John Nellis & Katya (31) | |
| Average improvement/decline seen in week two | -0.9 points (from 31.4 to 30.5) | |
| Probability of improving on their week one score | 50% (23 contestants out of 46) | |
| Biggest improvements to date | +5 points | s5, Alesha Dixon & Matthew  (31 to 36) |
| s22, Tasha Ghouri & Aljaz (30 to 35) | ||
| +4 points | s3, Colin Jackson & Erin (32 to 36) | |
| s15, Debbie McGee & Giovanni (30 to 34) | ||
| Biggest declines to date | -11 points | s19, Adam Peaty & Katya J (30 to 19) |
| s23, Karen Carney & Carlos (31 to 20) |
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| -10 points | s20, Hamza Yassin & Jowita (34 to 24) |
|
‘Model students’ - contestants that scored 25 - 29 points in week one
| Class size (s1-s23) | 94 (4.1 per series) | |
|---|---|---|
| New additions | Delta Goodrem & Kai (29) | |
| Lacey Turner & Vito (27) | ||
| Bethany Antonia & Nancy (26) | ||
| Average improvement/decline seen in week two | +0.5 points (from 27.1 to 27.5) | |
| Probability of improving on their week one score | 48% (45 contestants out of 94) | |
| Biggest improvements to date | +8 points | s4, Louisa Lytton & Vincent (28 to 36) |
| s11, Sophie Ellis-Bextor & Brendan (28 to 36) | ||
| s12, Pixie Lott & Trent (27 to 35) | ||
| Biggest declines to date | -9 points | s8, Gavin Henson & Katya V (28 to 19) |
| -7 points | s7, Phil Tufnell & Katya V (29 to 22) | |
| s11, Rachel Riley & Pasha (27 to 20) | ||
| s15, Joe McFadden & Katya J (29 to 22) |
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‘Solid performance’ - contestants that scored 20 - 24 points in week one
| Class size (s1-s23) | 102 (4.4 per series) | |
|---|---|---|
| New additions | Graeme Hall & Lauren (24) | |
| Dani Dyer & Nikita (22) | ||
| Tabby Stoecker & Mark (22) | ||
| Jaime Winstone & Carlos (21) | ||
| Cach Mercer & Maddie (20) | ||
| Lawrence Robb & Jowita (20) | ||
| Average improvement/decline seen in week two | +1.6 points (from 22.1 to 23.7) | |
| Probability of improving on their week one score | 60% (61 contestants out of 102) | |
| Biggest improvements to date | +13 points | s19, Tilly Ramsay & Nikita (21 to 34) |
| +12 points | s15, Alexandra Burke & Gorka (24 to 36) | |
| s20, Bill Bailey & Oti (adjusted ‘20’ to ‘32’) |
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| Biggest declines to date | -10 points | s15, Charlotte Hawkins & Brendan (22 to 12) |
| -8 points | s2, Esther Rantzen & Anton (24 to 16) | |
| s17, Mike Bushell & Katya J (22 to 14) | ||
‘Must do better’ - contestants that scored <20 in week one
| Class size (s1-s23) | 73 (3.2 per series) | |
|---|---|---|
| New additions | Will Best & Dianne (18) | |
| Chris Appleton & Amy (16) | ||
| Melanie Walters & Aljaz (15) | ||
| Sarah Storey & Julian (15) | ||
| Shaun Wright-Phillips & Alexis (15) | ||
| Average improvement/decline seen in week two | +3.4 points (from 16.8 to 20.1) | |
| Probability of improving on their week one score | 70% (51 contestants out of 73) | |
| Biggest improvements to date | +17 points | s19, Sarah Davies & Aljaz (17 to 34) |
| +13 points | s17, Chris Ramsey & Karen Hauer (13 to 26) | |
| s23, Balvinder Sopal & Julian (17 to 30) | ||
| Biggest declines to date | -7 points | s17, David James & Nadiya (17 to 10) |
| -5 points | s8, Ann Widdecombe & Anton (17 to 12) | |
| -4 points | s13, Iwan Thomas & Ola (17 to 13) | |
| s16, Katie Piper & Gorka (17 to 13) | ||
From this analysis, I noticed the following…
- The week 2 leaderboard becomes more ‘compressed’ with the highest scoring partnerships from the previous week being the only group to see a slight drop in performance, and the lowest scoring partnerships being the group that goes on to achieve the biggest rise.
- Of the 13 biggest ‘improvers’ over the four categories, 10 were achieved by female celebrities and only 3 by male celebrities
- Of the 14 biggest ‘decliners’ over the four categories, 6 were female celebrities and 8 were male celebrities
- Katya Jones has suffered a decline of 7 or more points with three of her previous dance partners
I then looked at how each of the current professional dancers (who have had three or more dance partners) have fared between the two weeks.
| Professional | Average improvement/decline seen in week two | Probability of improving on their week one score |
|---|---|---|
 Nikita Kuzmin |
+5.0 | 80% |
 Dianne Buswell |
+2.4 | 56% |
 Vito Coppola |
+2.3 | 75% |
 Aljaz Skorjanec |
+2.2 | 45% |
 Amy Dowden |
+1.0 | 63% |
 Nancy Xu |
+1.0 | 50% |
 Kai Widdrington |
+0.5 | 75% |
 Neil Jones |
+0.3 | 67% |
 Carlos Gu |
-0.7 | 67% |
 Jowita Przystal |
-1.3 | 50% |
 Katya Jones |
-1.8 | 40% |
So, a combination of both a patchy follow-up performance from our week one ‘star performers’, and Katya’s prior ‘week two’ struggles suggest that John & Katya are likeliest to suffer the ‘wobble’.
However, given that two of our last four champions (Hamza Yassin & Karen Carney) also incurred some ‘growing pains’ in their second performance, perhaps incurring a slight ‘bump in the road’ would not harm their hopes of eventual glitterball glory.
